Many in the press and general public see consumer sentiment as a significant, independent force in the economy. Some suggest that sentiment indexes forecast future economic activity, others that changes in consumer sentiment actually drive business cycle fluctuations. ; This article shows that...

Widely accepted theories of consumer behavior suggest that consumers act according to a lifetime budget, spending against future earnings so long as they are predictable. Yet this study finds that many consumers respond to changes in income only when they are realized. Furthermore, adjustment...

A number of recent papers have explored monetary policy options, including inflation targeting and inflation forecast targeting (notably Svensson (1999a, 1999b, 2000)) and price level targeting (Wolman 2000, Batini and Yates 1999, Blinder 1999). Most papers explore "optimal" monetary policy in...

This paper estimates a structural demand model for commercial bank deposit services. Following the discrete choice literature, consumer decisions are based on prices and bank characteristics. The results, based on the U.S. for 1993-1999, indicate that, with respect to prices, consumers respond...

This paper presents a model of consumer automobile replacement in the presence of leasing. The model incorporates credit constraints to distinguish between the leasing and purchasing options. It demonstrates how leasing increases the probability that a household replaces its automobile and how...

This paper investigates the effects of stock market wealth on consumer spending. Traditional macroeconometric models estimate that a dollar's increase in stock market wealth boosts consumer spending by 3-7 cents per year. With the substantial 1990s rise in stock prices, the nature and magnitude...