While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer...

While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer...

Risk-based pricing of loans is well-accepted. Left unstudied, however, is the conditional credit risk of a loan that remains current. Using large-sample statistics and asset-level consumer automobile asset-backed security data, we find that default risk conditional on survival converges for...

We document that prior portfolio choices influence investors' expectations about asset values, and their future choices. We find that people update more from information consistent with their prior choices, leading to sticky portfolios over time. These effects are related to how the brain's...

Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent...

This paper empirically investigates individuals' attention allocation behavior and its economic implications on expectation formation and consumption choice. We measure attention with data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC), in which respondents were asked to report what economic news...

This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen and Carroll (2001) about the ability of consumer to learn the optimal buffer-stock based consumption rule. To this aim, we develop an agent based model where alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the...

Panel conditioning occurs when participation in previous survey rounds affects how respondents answer questions in later rounds. I document panel conditioning effects in reported inflation expectations and other responses in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations....

Does consumer sentiment change upon hearing news about fiscal budget deficit? Using U.S. consumer survey data from 1978 to 2018, we find consumer sentiment increases (decreases) significantly upon hearing favourable (unfavourable) fiscal deficit news. This effect is pervasive across our sample...

I develop a model of strategic communication between an uninformed receiver and a partially informed sender who is averse to lying. The sender's cost of lying is endogenous, depending on the receiver's beliefs induced by the sender's message, rather than on its exogenous formulation. Such...