In this paper we do a couple of things: discussing a way to measure the welfare cost of country risk, and measuring it for Argentina in the period 1875-2006. There are two conclusions: a) the welfare cost of Argentine risk has been huge: for example, in the period 1976-2006 it was around 20% of...

The purpose of the essay is twofold: a) explore the ability of S. Huntington's model of political development for societies in process of modernization to explain the Argentine political history in 1880-1955; b) prove the hypothesis that mass pretorianism is inherently unstable. We conclude the...

Between 1986 and 2003 the Argentine risk premium was able to explain, almost alone, the Argentine business cycle. As time went by, the premium lost gradually its explanatory power till losing it all between 2011 and 2019. Meanwhile, a huge increase in public expenditure might have triggered a...

The paper holds that the country risk premium is the triggering factor of the business cycle in a small, financially open and highly volatile economy like that of Argentina. A rise of the premium determines a capital outflow, an aggregate demand contraction and a recession; a fall of the premium...