We assess Japan’s sovereign credit rating dynamics and its long-term outlook using market implied and fundamental rating models. Japan’s recent market-implied ratings, which are based on government bond prices and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, have outperformed actual ratings and this...

In this paper we use data from the euro area to study episodes when sovereigns lose market access. We construct a detailed dataset with potential indicators of market access tensions, and evaluate their ability to forecast episodes when market access is lost, using various econometric...

In this paper we use data from the euro area to study episodes when sovereigns lose market access. We construct a detailed dataset with potential indicators of market access tensions, and evaluate their ability to forecast episodes when market access is lost, using various econometric...

In this paper we use data from the euro area to study episodes when sovereigns lose market access. We construct a detailed dataset with potential indicators of market access tensions, and evaluate their ability to forecast episodes when market access is lost, using various econometric...