In quantitative financial stability analysis, the link between the macroeconomic environment and credit risk is of particular importance when assessing the risk hidden in loan portfolios. Macroeconomic stress testing, in particular, which aims at measuring the impact of an economic crisis on...

This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main...

We propose a new method for analysing multiperiod stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifi es the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario....

We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in current macro stress tests. The plausibility of a scenario is quantified by its distance from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility, we search systematically...

Credit risk models used in quantitative risk management treat credit risk analysis conceptually like a single person decision problem. From this perspective an exogenous source of risk drives the fundamental parameters of credit risk: probability of default, exposure at default and the recovery...

This paper contributes to the literature on default in general equilibrium. Borrowing and lending takes place via a clearing house (bank) that monitors agents and enforces contracts. Our model develops a concept of bankruptcy equilibrium that is a direct generalization of the standard general...