We find a positive cross-sectional relationship between expected stock returns and default risk, contrary to the negative relationship estimated by prior studies. Whereas prior studies use noisy ex post realized returns to estimate expected returns, we use ex ante estimates based on the implied...

We analyze how Credit Default Swaps (CDS) affect bank incentives and borrower outcomes in renegotiations after covenant violations. Using a regression-discontinuity design and within lender-borrower variation, we find that CDS firms maintain investment after control rights shift to the creditor,...

We find that a firm's stock price reaction to its credit rating downgrade announcement is muted by 44--52% when credit default swaps (CDSs) trade on its debt. We explore the role of the CDS markets in providing information ex ante and relieving financing frictions ex post for downgraded firms....