In this article, we present a non-model framework for calculating exposure at default for counterparty credit risk analytically. While the proposed framework is based on the same fundamental assumption (that future transaction market values are normally distributed) as is used in the...

Based on a rich data set of recoveries donated by a debt collection business, recovery rates fornon-performing loans taken from a single European country are modelled using linear regression,linear regression with Lasso, beta regression and inflated beta regression. We also propose atwo-stage...

A challenge in economic capital modeling within financial institutions is developing a coherent approach to model validation. This has been motivated by rapid financial innovation, developments in supervisory standards (Pillar II of the Basel II framework) and the recent financial turmoil. We...

A challenge in enterprise risk measurement for diversified financial institutions is developing a coherent approach to aggregating different risk types. This has been motivated by rapid financial innovation, developments in supervisory standards (Basel 2) and recent financial turmoil. The main...

We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

The present study examines a wide set of credit risk determinants for the Bulgarian banking system. Using both monthly and quarterly data and employing two methodologies, Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, we test ninety-one possible determinants of the banks'...

This paper answers two research questions: what is the appropriate modeling tool for NPL study? and whether the NPL rates in Thailand show improving or deteriorating trend? NPL is of interests to management decision makers because it serves as an indicator for assessing risk in commercial loans....

Accessing and managing credit risk has been a major area of interest and concern for both academics, practitioners and regulators, particularly in the afterwards of the recent 2008 financial crisis. Moreover, the effective management of credit risk is a challenge faced by any banking and...

The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...

The model derives risky corporate bond prices (or equivalently credit spreads) subject to credit default and migration risk, based on an extended version of the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull model, under a risk-neutral framework, as a result of the simulation of a continuous time, time-homogeneous...