This paper tests the feasibility of local-level violence forecasting. We apply standard prediction models to new data from 242 Liberian communities to investigate whether it is to possible to predict outbreaks of local violence with sensitivity and accuracy, even with limited data. We first...

The paper shows that self-control, time preferences, and values are malleable in adults, and that investments in these skills and preferences reduce crime and violence. The authors recruited criminally-engaged Liberian men and randomized half to eight weeks of group cognitive behavioral therapy,...

Evidence of a causal effect of inequality on crime is scarce in developing countries. This paper estimates the effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis exploits a unique dataset containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities over a...

Governments across the developing world deploy their armed forces for domestic policing. Advocates of these policies tout their crime reduction effects, while detractors claim they undermine human rights. We experimentally evaluate a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, one of the...

As in many cities, gangs in Medellín provide order and collect 'taxes'. Why do gangs govern civilians? Some argue that criminal and state rule are substitutes. Hence, increasing state presence should crowd out gangs. But they could also be complements. States produce growth and general demand...

Several small, short-term, or non-experimental studies show that cognitive behavioral-informed trainings reduce antisocial behaviors for 1–2 years. But there is no large-scale, long-term research on persistence. We follow 999 high-risk men in Liberia 10 years after randomization into: 8 weeks...

The paper shows that self-control, time preferences, and values are malleable in adults, and that investments in these skills and preferences reduce crime and violence. The authors recruited criminally-engaged Liberian men and randomized half to eight weeks of group cognitive behavioral therapy,...