Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On...

Generally, one of the important issues related to currency crises is the output losses caused by these phenomena. In this study, determinants of output losses and particularly the role of the central bank will be evaluated during currency crises. Moreover, the paper tries to investigate the...

Die lateinamerikanischen Währungskrisen lenkten erst kürzlich wieder das Augenmerk auf die Gefahren wechselkursbasierter Stabilisierungen (WKBS). Dies sind Inflationsstabilisierungsprogramme, die den nominalen Wechselkurs als vorrangiges geldpolitisches Instrument einsetzen. Die vorliegende...

This paper analyzes the implications of currency crises in a model with unique equilibrium. Starting from a typical multiple equilibria model with self-fulfilling expectations we introduce noisy information, following Morris/Shin (1999). Under certain conditions for the noise parameter, all...

This paper studies the design of optimal monetary policy rules for emerging economies confronted to sharp capital outflows and speculative attacks. We extend Taylor type monetary policy rules by allowing the central bank to give some weight to the level of precautionary foreign reserve balances...

I study the pricing of American Depositary Receipts around FOMC meetings to identify the impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates. ADR investors assess the domestic central bank's reluctance to maintain a currency peg regime if the costs of mimicking policy rate increases in the US...

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in...

Currency and financial turmoils in international capital markets have been the focus of an extensive theoretical research which started around 30 years ago. This paper provides a synthetic overview of this theoretical modeling. We analyze the basic analytical framework corresponding to the...