Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that...

This article analyses whether exchange rate pressures and speculative attacks against the Brazilian currency during the period of exchange rate anchorage resulted from imbalances in economic fundamentals. An alternative methodological approach is used to test whether the deterioration of...

This paper analyzes the currency crises of the South American countries during the period from 1992 to 1998, based on the Velasco (1996) model. This is a model that synthesizes two approaches: speculative attacks resulting from unbalanced macroeconomics fundamentals and resulting from...

Este artigo tem por objetivo verificar se os países envolvidos nas principais crises cambiais dos anos 1990 seriam anunciados como vulneráveis às respectivas crises, com base em previsões levadas a cabo com uso de um escore de avaliação de crise definido pela função perda de Barro-Gordon...

Krugman (1979) developed a canonical model of currency crises and speculative attack. Later, it was called "models of 1st generation". In this context, this paper analyzes the model of Krugman (1979) to Brazil, in the period of January of 1995 to December of 1998. We used the test of Granger...

This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as “twin crises”, adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries...