order to best nowcast US initial unemployment claims in spring of 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that …

expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer …

misspecification of the short run unemployment-output relationship. A mixed lag structure indirectly controls for missing explanatory … law with a focus on the dynamic part of the relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and … output holds for most countries and is fairly stable over time. However, Okun's coefficient varies substantially across …

unemployment and its duration distribution. Using the SIPP, we document the relation between workers' (gross and net) occupational … mobility and unemployment duration over the long run and business cycle. To interpret this evidence, we develop an analytically … countercyclical net occupational mobility, the large volatility of unemployment and the cyclical properties of the unemployment …

unemployment and its duration distribution. Using the SIPP, we document the relation between workers' (gross and net) occupational … mobility and unemployment duration over the long run and business cycle. To interpret this evidence, we develop an analytically … countercyclical net occupational mobility, the large volatility of unemployment and the cyclical properties of the unemployment …

We build an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model of unemployment in heterogeneous … countercyclical unemployment, and is simultaneously consistent with procyclical reallocation, countercyclical separations and a … negatively-sloped Beveridge curve. Moreover, the model exhibits unemployment duration dependence, which (when calibrated to long …

We build an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model of unemployment in heterogeneous … countercyclical unemployment, and is simultaneously consistent with procyclical reallocation, countercyclical separations and a … negatively-sloped Beveridge curve. Moreover, the model exhibits unemployment duration dependence, which (when calibrated to long …