When forecasts of the future value of some variable, or the probability of some event, are used for purposes of ex ante planning or decision making, then the preferences, opportunities and constraints of the decision maker will all enter into the ex post evaluation of a forecast, and the ex post...

We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors. Subjects (n=44) are presented a series of 50/50 gambles that each involves a potential gain and a potential loss, and subjects can choose to either accept or reject a displayed...