We examine a fundamental feature of choice under uncertainty: Overestimating an alternative makes one more likely to choose it. If people are naive to this structural feature, then they will tend to have erroneously inflated expectations for the alternatives they choose. In contrast to theories...

Suppose a decision maker (DM), in the language of Anscombe and Aumann (1963), has preferences over acts (horse-race lotteries) that satisfy the von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) axioms for objective lotteries (constant acts) and Anscombe and Aumann's (1963) Axioms of Reversal of Order and...