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Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
(KMM) interpret ambiguity aversion as aversion against second-order risks associated with ambiguous acts. We design an … experiments. It appears that the ambiguity premium is partially paid to avoid the ambiguity issue per se, which is distinct from … notions of second- order risk. This finding is robust even when there is only partial ambiguity, and is applicable to all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011801484
ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. These preferences are dynamically inconsistent for nontrivial versions of α. In this paper, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892184
We propose and axiomatically characterize a representation of ambiguity sensitive preferences. The distinguishing … maker exhibits a consistent tradeoff between risk and ambiguity concerns. Under our representation of her preferences, any … ambiguity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491097
We introduce a model of random ambiguity aversion. Choice is stochastic due to unobserved shocks to both information … and ambiguity aversion. This is modeled as a random set of beliefs in the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and … Schmeidler (1989). We characterize the model and show that the distribution of ambiguity aversion can be uniquely identified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012587418
Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335
We relate time-varying aggregate ambiguity (V-VSTOXX) to individual investor trading. We use the trading records of … an increase in ambiguity is associated with increased investor activity. It also leads to a reduction in risk …-taking which does not reverse over the following days. When ambiguity is high, the effect of sentiment looms larger. Survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387918
This paper investigates beliefs in an ambiguous environment. In contrast to many previous studies, the beliefs regarding possible scenarios are measured independently from attitudes. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the entire distribution of subjective beliefs and examine how beliefs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432016
regarding the realization likelihood of cash flows, the subjective attitude towards risk, and the attitude towards ambiguity …. While previous literature looks at the total price discount under ambiguity, this paper investigates with laboratory … belief effects, the risk premiums, and the ambiguity premiums from each other. Both methods lead to similar results: Overall …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485093
This paper analyzes dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It demonstrates that unambiguous behavioral … sophisticated MEU preferences are then used to analyze the value of information under ambiguity; a basic trade-off between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691151