We use a text-mining approach to construct a general index of trade policy uncertainty(TPU) for the U.S. and some of its main trade partners. This TPU index capturesuncertainty on U.S. trade policy at a very detailed level (partner and industry levels)from 2001 to 2017. It's general, thereby...

This article aims to analyze the strategic decision about firms location choice faced with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. We combine Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) and spatial Agent-based Simulation (ABS) approaches with input-output analysis. Firms are competing in two different sectors:...

We develop a theoretical framework to explain firms' offshoring decisions in the presence of uncertainty. This model highlights the role of labor market institutions in shaping a firm's ability to effectively react upon future shocks, yielding a sharp prediction of the prevalence of offshoring...

This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade for a sample of 149 exporters at the HS6 digit level. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional...

Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied...

We estimate the trade effect of removing uncertainty about future trading conditions in the context of the 2014 reform of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) of the European Union (EU). EU GSP members receive non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), but only as long as they are not too...

This study proposes a novel channel through which trade liberalization may induce innovationthrough the reduction of trade policy uncertainties (TPU) in destination markets. To verify thislinkage, we utilize the significant reduction of TPU engendered by China’s accession to theWorld Trade...