reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. In a model-based environment, this framework allows …

environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as … uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different …

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the … Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …

policymakers’ beliefs about higher-order moments of economic distributions – specifically perceptions of uncertainty and skewness … unobservable decision-making features, we construct text-based proxies for policymakers’ uncertainty, sentiment, and policy stance … from the FOMC meeting transcripts over the 1987--2015 period. Heightened uncertainty generally amplifies the policymakers …