This paper argues that the similarities between Ellsberg's and Shackle's frameworks for discussing the limits of the probabilistic approach to decision theory are more important than usually admitted. The paper discusses the grounds on which the ambiguity surrounding the decision-maker in...

This paper explores archival material concerning the reception of Leonard J. Savage's foundational work of subjective-Bayesian decision-making. The focus is on the criticism raised in the early 1960s by Daniel Ellsberg, William Fellner and Cedric Smith, who were supporters of the newly developed...

The existence of ambiguity presents a challenge to decision-makers as it eliminates the ability to apply standard optimization approaches, such as those based on calculating the objective expected values of alternative actions. In reality, ambiguity arises in most strategically important...

In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by...

Shackle was one of the representative critics of probability calculus. His alternative decision theory was mathematically reformalized by Katzner till 1990s. Following the Katzner's reformalized framework, this paper presents a new interpretation of Shacklean theory by focusing on the common...

In recent years most Austrian developments have argued for a definitive shift away from the search for equilibrium constructs and in favor of the analysis of those institutions which favor ordered outcomes of the market process. These developments imply an inevitable withdrawal from...

This paper discusses the evolution of decision theory after Savage's Foundations. Two developments are examined. First, it is presented the rationale of Shackle's proposal to abandon probabilistic decision making. Second, it is discussed the axiomatisation provided by the non-additive...

This paper assesses the rationale of George Shackle's argument against Bayesian decision making in the light of recent developments of modern decision theory. The focus is on the so-called non-additive probability approach to decision theory under uncertainty, which, not unlike Shackle's...

This paper uses four different disappointment models to examine the production decision of the competitive firm under uncertainty when the firm is not only risk-averse, but also disappointment-averse. We show the conditions under which the disappointment-averse firm will produce less than its...

The prospect theory is one of the most popular decision-making theories. It is based on the S-shaped utility function, unlike the von Neumann and Morgenstern (NM) theory, which is based on the concave utility function. The S-shape brings in mathematical challenges: simple extensions and...