Although survey‐based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors...

To make predictions with theories, usually we assume an individual's characteristics such as uncertainty preferences to be stable over time. In this paper, we analyze the stability of ambiguity preferences experimentally. We repeatedly elicit ambiguity attitudes towards multiple 3-color Ellsberg...

Subjects are asked to report their confidence in their own decisions regarding the Ellsberg three color urn. Subjective confidence is measured via a 5 point Likert scale. Surprisingly, subjects are more confident in their answer for the more complicated two color question, compared to the simple...

Traditionally, real experiments testing subjective expected utility theory take for granted that subjects view the Ellsberg task as a one-person decision problem. We challenge this view: Instead of seeing the Ellsberg task as a one-person decision problem, it can be perceived as a two-player...

Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Building on a recently developed axiomatic framework to analyze such situations, we test if subjects update their beliefs...