What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given $25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61 young, quantitatively trained men and women to play this...

In this paper, we establish an axiomatically founded generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model that allows for a separation among intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and ambiguity aversion. We axiomatize this model using two approaches: The second-order act approach à la Klibanoff,...

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...

Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...

In this paper, we establish an axiomatically founded generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model that allows for a separation among intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and ambiguity aversion. We axiomatize this model using two approaches: the second-order act approach à la Klibanoff,...

In this paper we perform a meta-analysis on empirical estimates of the impact between investment and uncertainty. Since the outcomes of primary studies are largely incomparable with respect to the magnitude of the effect, our analysis focuses on the direction and statistical significance of the...

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses...

Andreoni and Sprenger (in press) report evidence that distinct utility functions govern choices under certainty and risk. I investigate the robustness of their result to the experimental design. I find that the effect disappears completely when a multiple price list is used instead of a convex...

Andreoni and Sprenger (in press) report evidence that distinct utility functions govern choices under certainty and risk. I investigate the robustness of their result to the experimental design. I find that the effect disappears completely when a multiple price list is used instead of a convex...

This paper studies the impact of Knightian uncertainty on the disposition of individuals in the lab to seize an irreversible investment. Subjects had the option to trade a safe endowment for a claim on the sum of future realizations from a geometric random walk. The drift of this profit process...