Showing 1 - 10 of 31
This paper presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, California follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and ARCH errors. Based on this process, we define an equilibrium pricing model for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005805319
Product-line length, or variety, is a key competitive tool used by retailers to differentiate themselves from rivals. Theoretical models of price and variety competition suggest that both store and product heterogeneity are key determinants of price and variety strategies, but none test this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005330351
Supermarket retailers make strategic pricing decisions in a high-frequency, repeated game environment both in buying and selling fresh produce. In this context, there is some question as to whether a non-cooperative equilibrium can emerge that produces margins above the competitive level....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005330352
One step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest USDA price forecasts are not optimal....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442983
Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009446898
In traditional tests of forecast rationality, price forecasts are usually differenced to obtain stationarity. However, this data transformation may ignore important long-run information contained in forecasted price levels. Here, the concept of forecast consistency is paired with rationality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513140
Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005469312
The informational content in live cattle and hog deferred futures prices is assessed using a direct test of incremental forecast ability for two- to twelve-month horizons. For 1976-2007, the results indicate that hog futures prices add incremental information at all horizons, but unique...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005805339
One step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest USDA price forecasts are not optimal....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005807903
USDA and Cooperative Extension Service forecasts of hog prices are directly tested for incremental value vis-à-vis futures-based forecasts in a forecast encompassing framework. At horizons less than six months, the lean hog futures-based forecast is found to be more accurate than both the USDA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519358