The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

Brief description of the project: Apart from coordination the project consists of seven work packages. WP2 analyses errors of past forecasts. On the assumption that the future distribution of forecast errors is the same as in the past, errors of past forecasts can be used to calculate the...