The 2010 Census confirmed that Brazil is experiencing a substantial demographic transformation. In 1990, the fertility rate was 2.8 per woman, but by 2010 it had fallen to 1.9, a rate well below the population replacement. Projections suggest that the Brazilian fertility rate will be among the...

This paper introduces the age structure of the population into the analysis of medium term unemployment swings. We incorporate age-related features into the Shapiro-Stiglitz shirking model and find that the observed age pattern of unemployment can be explained in terms of the model. Moreover, we...

German Abstract Dieses Papier stellt Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) vor. Es beruht vorwiegend auf dem MEA-PENSIM Modell des Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) und ergänzend auf dem PENPRO-Modell des DIW. Das Modell projiziert aus Annahmen...

In the past 50 years, the world accelerated its transition out of long-term demographic stability. As infant and child mortality rates fell, populations began to soar. In most countries, this growth led to falling fertility rates. Although fertility has fallen, the population continues to...

Demographic change across the globe puts pressure on labour markets and public finances. Most studies on ageing focus on the projected development of the old age dependency ratio, being the ratio of persons 65 or older relative to the working age population. This ratio gives a very incomplete...

This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly...

This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should...

During the past 40 years, the economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has achieved miraculous growth, a significant part of which many have attributed to its favorable labor supply resulting from the country's "demographic dividend"-that is, a relatively large share of the working-age...

We use a cohort based model to analyze determinants of labour force participation for disaggregated groups of workers in the euro area and the five largest euro area countries. The model captures age and cohort effects as indicators of (unobserved) determinants of participation behaviour. We use...

This paper investigates the fiscal pressure from demographic change in relation to the labor market space for fifty countries that cover 75% of the world population. The pressure-to-space indicator ranks Poland, Turkey and Greece high. Apart from Turkey and India, developing countries rank low...