This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median...

In their recent paper, Boldrin and Montes (2005) analyze the "return on human capital investment" theory and show that if borrowing for education is not possible, then a combined public education and pension system that uses lump sum taxes and transfers can replicate the first-best decentralized...

This paper considers the likely development of aggregate living standards in the United Kingdom over the course of this century and some of the risks to this outlook. It argues that even under relatively cautious assumptions about technological progress and capital accumulation, aggregate living...

This paper shows that demographic change plays an important role in the formation of a country's net foreign asset position. An ageing population both lowers the demand and increases the supply of capital in an economy. Fewer workers reduce the required capital stock. As a longer life span leads...

We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance,...

German Abstract Dieses Papier stellt Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) vor. Es beruht vorwiegend auf dem MEA-PENSIM Modell des Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) und ergänzend auf dem PENPRO-Modell des DIW. Das Modell projiziert aus Annahmen...

Many economies in East and Southeast Asia are progressing toward becoming aging or aged societies. The impacts of this demographic transition are multifaceted and far-reaching and include declining tax revenues, leading to fiscal imbalances, and possible increases in government expenditures for...

Demographic change across the globe puts pressure on labour markets and public finances. Most studies on ageing focus on the projected development of the old age dependency ratio, being the ratio of persons 65 or older relative to the working age population. This ratio gives a very incomplete...

The aim of this paper is to analyze private pension systems financed by pay-as-you-go, with a focus on the pension funds of the Italian Professional Orders. The research centres on the financial and demographic risks and on their impact on the future evolution of the fund. It presents a model to...

The paper studies the power of educational investments in relation to transfers for fostering lifetime income and for reducing income inequality in Germany. The welfare analysis is based on a model of age-dependent human capital accumulation, featuring dynamic complementarities in skill...