In this paper, the authors provide some asymptotic results for the J-type test on non-nested hypotheses proposed by Davidson and MacKinnon (1981), in the context of I(1) time series.

The global linear trend with autocorrelated disturbances is a surprising omission from the M1 competition. This approach to forecasting is therefore evaluated using the 51 non-seasonal series from the competition. It is contrasted with a fully optimized version of Holts trend corrected...

This paper develops a formal framework based on multivariate spectral techniques for assesssing the performance of multivariate dynamic models whose solution is approximated through simulation. The approach is especially suitable for models that focus on a particular frequency range , such as...

A class of nonlinear processes which have a root that is not constant, but is stochastic, and varying around unity is introduced. Th eprocess can be stationary for some periods, and mildly explosive for others.

Part of conventional wisdom glaned from econometric theory and the "learning" literature is that agents ahould use all the data they have for prediction. In this paper it is shown that agents can improve their prediction by throwing away data.

The conventional Edgeworth expansion view of bootstrap confidence intervals suggests that for the bootstrap to exceed the accuracy of the normal approximation one must bootstrap asymptotically pivotal statistics. This paper questions the basic premise of the asymptotic theory used to rationalize...

While there has been a great deal of interest in the modeling of non-linearities in economic time series, there is no clear consensus regarding the forecasting abilities of non-linear time series models. We evaluate the performance of two leading non-linear models in forecasting post-war US GNP,...