A number of volatility forecasting studies have led to the perception that the ARCH- and Stochastic Volatility-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the...

We develop a ten variable structural VAR model of the Australian economy for the period 1980 to 1995. The VAR methodology has not been widely applied in the Australian context, despite its popularity in quantitative macroeconomics internationally.