This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while a second formulation, small and big shocks have separate effects.

A class of nonlinear processes which have a root that is not constant, but is stochastic, and varying around unity is introduced. Th eprocess can be stationary for some periods, and mildly explosive for others.

In this paper, we provide both quantitative and quantitative measures of the cost of measuring the integrated volatility by the realized volatility when the frequency of observation is fixed.

The paper considers parametric and nonparametric estimation of the distribution function F. Issues of particular interest are the identification properties of this model and, in the nonparametric case, the speed of convergence of the estimator F. The latter depends upon the properties of the...

In this study, PRISMA'98 -EIM's model for medium-term forecasting, policy analysis and scenario-building- is presented. PRISMA'98 is a macro-sectoral model of the Dutch economy; special feature of the model if the disaggregation of sectors of industry into groups of enterprises of different size.

More than thirty years ago Milton Friedman proposed a 'plucking' model of business fluctuations in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level, but will, from time to time, be plucked downward by recession. The model implied that business fluctuations are asymmetric, that recessions have only a...

The predictive accuracy of various econometrics models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil).

In this paper we propose a test statistic to compare two or more stationary time series that are not necessarily independent. The test is based on the difference between estimated parameters of the autoregressive models that are fitted to the series.

We develop a ten variable structural VAR model of the Australian economy for the period 1980 to 1995. The VAR methodology has not been widely applied in the Australian context, despite its popularity in quantitative macroeconomics internationally.

An important class of structural econometric models (nonlinear rational expectations,option pricing, auction models,...) characterize observable variables as highly nonlinear transformations of some latent variables. These transformations are one-to-one but they depend on the unknown...