This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while a second formulation, small and big shocks have separate effects.

Tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international finance. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity tests may cause extreme size...

Recent portfolio choice asset pricing and option valuation models highlight the importance of skewness and kurtosis. Since skewness and kurtosis are related to extreme variations they are also important for Value-at-Risk measurements. Our framework builds on a GARCH model with a condi-tional...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...

In this paper, new noncausality tests built on a general nonlinear framework are proposed and their performance studied by a Monte Carlo experiment and a variety of nonlinear artificial series. Two of these test are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in a...

This paper investigates a monetary model of exchange rate determination: an extension of the Krugman basic target zone model with price inertia applied to the French Franc. We consider a novel theoretical argument, the Threshold Cointegration, such that the long-run relationship between the...

One of the stylized facts in financial and international economics is that of increasing predictability of variables such as exchange rates and stock returns at longer horizons. This fact is based upon applications of long horizon regressions, from which the typical findings are that the point...

This paper introduces a matching model of credit and exchange in which potentiel difficulties in the enforcement of contracts play a central role. The repeated games framework that is developed is used to analyze the pricing and availability of credit, the consequences of information monopoly in...

In this poper we present a consistent spacification test of a parametric regression function against a general nonparametric alternative. The proposed test is based on wavelet estimation ant it is shown to have similar rates of convergence to the more commonly used kernel based tests.

In this paper, we provide both quantitative and quantitative measures of the cost of measuring the integrated volatility by the realized volatility when the frequency of observation is fixed.