In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance...

In recent times DSGE models came more and more into the focus of forecasters and showed promising forecast performances for the short term. We contribute to the existing literature by analyzing the forecast power of a DSGE model including endogenous growth for the medium run. Instead of only...

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure...

In this study we introduce a new monthly indicator for private consumption in Germany based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on unobserved factors extracted from a set of consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights...

In der Euro-Krise gingen starke Änderungen in internationalen Kapitalflüssen mit großer makroökonomischer Unsicherheit einher. Zwar ist es offensichtlich, dass beide Faktoren ökonomische Schocks auslösen bzw. verstärken können, es ist aber derzeit unklar, inwiefern sie direkt miteinander...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

Information about special events can improve economic forecasts substantially. However, due to the lack of timely quantitative data about these events, it has been difficult for professional forecasters to utilise such information in their forecasts. This paper investigates whether Internet...

We examine the dynamics of bank lending to the private sector for countries of the Euro area by applying a Markov switching error correction model. We identify for Belgium, Germany, Ireland and Portugal stable, mean reverting regimes and unstable regimes with no tendency to return to the long...