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Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237

The making of a cyber crash : a conceptual model for systemic risk in the financial sector

Ros, Greg - 2020

In October 2017, the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) set up a group whose objective was to examine cyber security vulnerabilities within the financial sector, and their potential impact on financial stability and the real economy. In its first year, the European Systemic Cyber Group (ESCG)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241315

Long-term debt propagation and real reversals

Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; Korinek, Anton - 2023

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248726

Is a global recession imminent?

Guénette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022

Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383374

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

A double-edged sword : high interest rates in capital control regimes

Gudmundsson, Gudmundur S.; Gylfi Zoega - 2016

This paper describes the relationship between central bank interest rates and exchange rates under a capital control regime. Higher interest rates may strengthen the currency by inducing owners of local currency assets not to sell local currency off shore. There is also an effect that goes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415751

Pockets of risk in European housing markets : then and now

Kelly, Jane; Le Blanc, Julia; Lydon, Reamonn - 2019

Using household survey data, we document evidence of a loosening of credit standards in Euro area countries that experienced a property price boom-and-bust cycle. Borrowers in these countries exhibited significantly higher loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios in the run up to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978833

Financial crises and liberalization : progress or reversals?

Saka, Orkun; Campos, Nauro; De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei; … - 2019

Financial crisis can trigger policy reversals, i.e. they can lead to a process of re- regulation of financial markets. Using a recent comprehensive dataset on financial liberalization across 94 countries for the period between 1973 and 2015, we formally test the validity of this prediction for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022690

How robust is the result that the cost of "leaning against the wind" exceeds the benefit? : response to Adrian and Liang

Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2017

The main result in Svensson (2017) and its previous versions is that, given current knowledge and empirical estimates, the cost of using monetary policy to \lean against the wind" for financialstability purposes exceeds the benefit by a substantial margin. Adrian and Liang (2016a) conduct a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637310

Financial policy in an exuberant world

Walther, Ansgar - 2020

This paper studies optimal financial policy in a world where the financial sector can become excessively optimistic. I decompose the welfare effects of bank capital regulation to demonstrate the effects of exuberance and its interaction with incentive problems in banking. The optimal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178343

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