This paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i)...

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses areawide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...

This paper proposes a new measure for the evaluation of financial market efficiency, the so-called intermittency coefficient. This is a multifractality measure that can quantify the deviation from a random walk within the framework of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001b)....

Aktuelle Daten zu den weltweiten Nettostromimporten zeigen, dass in den vergangenen Jahren eine gewisse Dynamik in den Entwicklungen der Nettostromimporte in Europa entstanden ist. So hat Deutschland im Jahr 2008 netto Strom exportiert, während sich für die 1990er sowie die frühen 2000er...

Die ausreichende und beständige Verfügbarkeit von Energie ist für hoch entwickelte Industrieländer eine unabdingbare Voraussetzung für ihre wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Das gilt für alle Bereiche einer modernen Volkswirtschaft, angefangen vom Produktionssektor über den Transport- und den...

This paper applies different copulas in order to investigate the complex dependence structure between EU emission allowance (EUA) futures returns and those of other commodities, equity and energy indices. The analysis yields important insights into the relationship between carbon, commodities...

Because of a link between the EU ETS and the Kyoto Flexible Mechanisms, the emission certificates traded on these markets are in principle interchangeable assets; despite of this, a persistent price difference exists. We explain this price spread using a theoretical model that combines three...