; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …

-term predictions. Due to the characteristics of the residuals, a bootstrapping method of forecasting was also used, yielding even … poorer results for the nonlinear model. -- nonlinear time series models ; SETAR models ; forecasting …

point and density forecasts, in line with forecasting practices at many policy institutions. Our main findings are that … point forecasts perform similarly using both approaches, whereas directly forecasting aggregate indices tends to yield … better density forecasts. In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, relative forecasting performance was typically only …

In this study, we build two forecasting models to predict inflation Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the …

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area … forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time series models and …

that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR …