Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach)....

This paper extends the methodology for a simultaneous detecting of business and growth cycle, already developed for the euro area, to its major member countries. The best performing indicators for each country are identified through a simulation exercise. An indirect pair of turning point...

The availability of timely and reliable information on main macroeconomic variables is considered both by policy makers and analysts as crucial for an effective process of decision making. Unfortunately official statistics cannot always meet adequately user needs. This is the reason why, using...

This paper analyses alternative constraints in Structural VAR models allowing for the decomposition between permanent and transitory components. Alternative SVAR specifications are then compared in a real-time exercise using the HP filter as a benchmark.

This paper describes the construction of a real-time monitoring system of the euro area economy by complementing official statistics by advanced statistical and econometric techniques. It also shows how it is possible to build up an effective cyclical early warning system for the euro area by...

In this paper we propose two dynamic approaches to measure synchronisation in the Euro area. First of all to be able to take into account dynamics in correlation and possible changes in variability, we consider a multivariate DCC GARCH model. Secondly, we propose to use the set of probabilistic...