The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available, suggesting the adoption of simple time series models as...

In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our evaluation is based on using the variables in the ECB Euro-area model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each...

The accession of ten new members to the European Union on May 1st 2004 is among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this book analyses key aspects of the impact of this recent enlargement with...

Key aspects of the impact of the recent enlargement of the EU are analysed with reference to the Central and Eastern European countries. The book demonstrates that the enlargement could have profound consequences on both the new Member States and on the pre-accession members of the Union

We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types of structural change, and compare the relative forecasting performance of factor...