This paper estimates the probability distribution of budgets, revenues, returns and profits to G-, PG-, PG13-, and R-rated movies. The distributions are non-Gaussian and show a self-similar stable Paretian form with non-finite variance and non-stationary mean.

In an economy with asymmetric information, Rational Expectations Equilibria (REE) need not become asymptotically incentive compatible, even if many independent replicas of the economy are merged together. We identify a sub-class of REE for which this is nevertheless the case. It consists of...

We provide a definition of the rational expectations core in an atomless economy with asset markets and show that allocations in the core can be decentralized by a system of asset and spot prices as rational expectations equilibria.

The paper is an investigation of the Kalman Filter Process as an aid to derive output anticipations. It is a mechanism that generated and refines expectations as new intelligence enters the information set.

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not...

This paper attempts to identify, in a framework deliberately stripped of unnecessary technicalities, some of the basic reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large socioeconomic systems where no agent, or collection of...

Recent models of monetary policy and monetary rules can have indeterminacy of equilibria. The indeterminacy property is often viewed as a difficulty of these models. We consider its significance using the learning approach to expectations formation by employing expectational stability as a...

Qualitative answers given in the INSEE conjuctural surveys (1972-1994) by approximately 2500 households during two consecutive years aloow us to test the rationality of price and unemployment expectations on panel data.