We apply the dynamic stochastic framework proposed by recent evolutionary literature to the class of strict supermodular games when two simple behavior rules coexist in the population, imitation and myopic optimization.

This paper test stwo hypotheses for the overbidding behavior of the banks in the fixed rate tenders conducted by the European Central Bank from January 1999 until June 2000. One hypothesis attributes the overbidding to expectations of a future tightening of monetary policy, while the other...

Models of expextations formation via learning by economic agents have recently been developed in the literature. Currently, the most common approach leads to complete learning in which asymptotically agents have rational expectations (though cases of instability also exist). Dynamics with...

This paper has estimated, using a non-parametric method, the distribution function of expected three-month interbank rates, using data on call options on the MIBOR-90 future. The evolution over time of this distribution function has enabled the effects of movements in the Banco de Espana...

This paper attempts to identify, in a framework deliberately stripped of unnecessary technicalities, some of the basic reasons why adaptive learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large socioeconomic systems where no agent, or collection of...

This paper has estimated, using a non-parametric method, the distribution function of expected three-month interbank rates, using data on call options on the MIBOR-90 future. The evolution over time of this distribution function has enabled the effects of movements in the Banco de España...

In an economy with asymmetric information, Rational Expectations Equilibria (REE) need not become asymptotically incentive compatible, even if many independent replicas of the economy are merged together. We identify a sub-class of REE for which this is nevertheless the case. It consists of...

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not...