An unresolved question concerning stochastic depreciation shocks is whether they have to be unrealistically large to have any useful role in a dynamic general equilibrium model economy, as Ambler and Paquet (1994) first suggested. We first consider implied depreciation rates from sectoral data...

A pair of simple modifications-in the forecast error and forecast error variance-to the Kalman filter recursions makes possible the filtering of models in which one or more state variables is truncated normal and latent. Such recursions are broadly applicable to macroeconometric models, such as...

Previous time series applications of qualitative response models have ignored features of the data, such as conditional heteroskedasticity, that are routinely addressed in time-series econometrics of financial data. This article addresses this issue by adding Markov-switching heteroskedasticity...

Monetary policy VARs typically presume stability of the long-run outcomes. We introduce the possibility of switches in the long-run equilibrium in a cointegrated VAR by allowing both the covariance matrix and weighting matrix in the error-correction term to switch. We find that monetary policy...

A general-equilibrium shopping-time model of money demand is used to obtain estimates of some dynamic costs of inflation under alternative monetary policy rules. After examining the welfare implications of steady-state inflation, dynamic welfare costs are evaluated for inflation-targeting and...

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992),...

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. Using a characterization of the bias-variance tradeoff faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling...

Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single...

In this paper we present a recursive method for the computation of dynamic competitive equilibria in models with heterogeneous agents and market frictions. This method is based on a convergent operator over an expanded set of state variables. The fixed point of this operator defines the set of...

Presented at the Conference on Recognizing and Coping with Macroeconomic Model Uncertainty in Designing Monetary Policy. Sponsored by the Bank of Korea. Seoul, Korea.