In the heart of the Great Crisis, amidst great uncertainty and concerns surrounding the future of capitalism, John Maynard Keynes launched his optimistic prophecy that growth and technological change would allow mankind to solve its economic problem within a century. He envisioned a world where...

With the release of Treasury papers from the 1970s under the 30-year rule we have a much more complete picture of the dispute in the 1970s between the Treasury and the Cambridge Economic Policy Group, especially given the role of three Cambridge economists. Nicholas Kaldor, Wynne Godley and...

This Strategic Analysis paper provides an analysis of the medium-term forces behind economic growth since 1980, showing that the authors' previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a...

DSGE models have recently become one of the most frequently used tools in policy analysis. Nevertheless, their forecasting proprieties are still unexplored. In this article we address this problem by examining the quality of forecasts from a small size DSGE model, a trivariate VAR model and the...

In this paper, we examine the ability of Fisher effect to describe the subjective behaviour of monetary policy responses for nations constrained by global factors. We developed and estimated a simple DSGE model for appraising the consequence of an integrated financial market predictor on...

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates...

This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...

In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic triggered the largest drop in global output since World War II. However, it turned out to be less than expected at the beginning of the pandemic. International organizations are improving global economic outlook as the vaccination of the population accelerates...

The imposition of sweeping sanctions against Russia has a negative impact on the entire global economy, contributing to accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. The decline in GDP growth in most G-20 countries has been influenced, among other things, by tightening of the monetary...

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...