Forecasting procedures are needed only if there is uncertainty about the future. Forecasts are unnecessary when one can control events. For example, predicting the temperature in your home does not require the use of forecasting procedures because you can control it. A forecast that the sun will...

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods....

We examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) and the Journal of Forecasting (JoF). Replications in the IJF and JoF comprised 9.4% of the empirical papers. This compares with various areas of management...

The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high number of citations to papers published about research on forecasting, and upon the number of subscriptions for journals devoted to forecasting. The supply of research papers is also large, following a rapid...

To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a...

This issue marks the end of my term as Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. My term as a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters also ended this year. My involvement has lasted for ten very satisfying years. In this editorial, I present views on the development of...

Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and prediction markets. Delphi is relatively simple and cheap to implement and has been adopted for...

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average...

Forecasting is concerned with making statements about the as yet unknown. There are many ways that people go about deriving forecasts. This entry is concerned primarily with procedures that have performed well in empirical studies that contrast the accuracy of alternative methods.Evidence about...

The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned with the effective presentation and use of forecasts