Showing 1 - 10 of 1,980
is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339322
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765842
the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009692667
This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and … forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time. This suggests that models of heterogeneous expectation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424832
In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand; 4) small structural model that links GDP components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623268
-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864122
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842351
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156473
growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226771