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Nowcasting GDP in Argentina : comparing the predictive ability of different models

Blanco, Emilio; D'Amato, Laura; Dogliolo, Fiorella; … - 2017

Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Regime-dependent nowcasting of the Austrian economy

Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava - 2023

We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and … autoregressive model according to Ghysels (2016) and mixed data sampling approaches, and compare their forecast and nowcast … data. We are particularly interested in whether explicitly considering different regimes improves the nowcast. Thus we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432187

Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas : una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México

Capistrán Carmona, Carlos (contributor); … - 2008

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M´exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003748770

Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series : LASSO-Based Approaches and Their Forecast Combinations with Dynamic Factor Models

Li, Jiahan - 2014

In a data-rich environment, forecasting economic variables amounts to extracting and organizing useful information out of a large number of predictors. So far dynamic factor model and its variants have been the most successful models for such exercises. In this paper, we investigate a category...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056979

GDP nowcasting : a machine learning and remote sensing data-based approach for Bolivia

Bolivar, Osmar - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 5 (2024) 3, pp. 1-25

economic growth is released with a substantial delay of up to six months. The proposed nowcast estimates effectively narrow …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015078275

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Heinisch, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising … of GDP is found to outperform the bottom-up approach. However, the nowcast resulting in the lowest forecast errors is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

ROC and PRC approaches to evaluate recession forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023

We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284725

ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182

German economy currently scarcely making headway

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 36/37, pp. 245-253

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362798