In this paper, we investigate the role of recessions on the relative forecasting performance of the Fed and the private sector. Romer and Romer (2000) showed that the Fed's forecasts of inflation and output were superior to that of the private sector in the pre-1991 period. D'Agostino and Whelan...

Using real-time data from 1985:Q1-2017:Q3 and simple VAR models, we show that there is substantial pay-off in combining credit supply indicators with house prices for forecasting real economic activity in the U.S. Consistent with the findings in the literature, we show that the forecasts from a...