Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...

We decompose stock market returns into cash flow news and discount rate news and show that an increase (decrease) in discount rate news, which reflects an increase in the quantity of risk or level of risk aversion in the economy, predicts a decrease (increase) in future aggregate output....

This paper examines the forecastability of GDP growth using information from the term structure of yields. In contrast to previous studies, the paper shows that the curvature of the yield curve contributes with much more forecasting power than the slope of yield curve. The yield curvature also...