In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...

Some recent empirical studies deny any direct performance effects of measures of geography and conclude that institutions trump all other potential determinants of development. For given effects of institutional quality, our empirical results indicate quantitatively important direct negative...

This dissertation comprises three distinct economic stduies. The first deals with the origin of business cycle fluctuations and the other two with the measurement of financial constraints and the identification of the respective treatment effect.

Die vier Schwellenländer Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China, zusammengefasst unter dem Begriff "BRIC-Staaten", sind in den letzten Jahren immer öfter Thema in Medien und Politik. Der Anstieg der öffentlichen Aufmerksamkeit ist dabei zweifelsohne der wachsenden wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung...

Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...

Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...

Assuming a production process with returns to scale that vary with the intensity it is operated at, an AK-model of endogenous growth with constant returns to scale in production is shown to arise due to replication driven by profit-maximization. If replication occurs at the efficiency-maximizing...

This study undertakes an examination of asymmetric adjustment effects between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data collected from 1983Q1 to 2013:Q4. In our study, we employ a momentum-threshold co-integration method to examine the long-run equilibrium...

The aim of the study was to determine the relationship mechanisms between the economic growth and human development. The research used cross country survey research design. The research covers 40 countries, 10 countries from each of human development ranks. Multivariate multiple regression model...

Based on Aghion et al. (2005), this article provides new insights regarding whether financial development can affect economic growth non-linearly by adopting the concept of threshold effects. The empirical approach adopted in this article allows for the finance-growth relationship to be...