All countries have had defining moments which have brought about important transformations in their economies and societies. These turning points, which may be triggered by wars, new technologies and markets, or crises, require new policies and reforms to help countries adapt to the fresh...

We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...

The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth to major sources of labor market determinants, in the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic factors in income growth, as defined by IS‐LM, and the relation between these factors and economic cycles. More precisely, the paper aims to investigate how the demand and supply factors affect income growth,...

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on...

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may...