This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Lagged GNP growth rates are poor forecasts of future GNP growth rates in postwar US data, leading to the impression that GNP is nearly a random walk. However, other variables, and especially the lagged consumption/GNP ratio, do forecast long-horizon GNP growth, and show that GNP has temporary...

China's economy is very interesting to analyze because it is recognized as the highest GDP in  the world. Despite the ability of China's economy to reform and grow, China shows fluctuation  in its economy especially after the crisis in 1997 and 2008. When China was able to counter  the...