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The sustained current account deficit in any country has an important implication for policy. If it continues, then it suggests that the regime ought to have no motivation to avoid or to diminish its international debt. In this paper, we test empirically the relationship among current account...
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Concerns about the impact of the general global uncertainty on economic performance have dominated academic debate in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis leading to huge body of empirical studies on ways of measuring and quantifying countries uncertainty and its impact on GDP,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342706
develop a robust estimation approach for these slow-moving trend processes, which is guided by a judicious choice of priors … structure of the estimation procedure. The general version of the proposed Bayesian estimator with a slab-and-spike prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013548955
We propose theory-based Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the extent to which the estimated speed of convergence depends on the underlying econometric techniques. Based on a theoretical growth model as the data generating process, we find that, given a true speed of convergence of around 5%,...
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We conduct an out-of-sample backtesting exercise of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) predictions for 24 OECD countries. We consider forecasts constructed from quantile regression and GARCH models. The quantile regression forecasts are based on a set of recently proposed measures of downside risks to GDP,...
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