A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The...

A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The...

This paper attempts to provide a coherent general equilibrium explanation for the joint U.S-British evolution during the last thousand years. We typified this period by initial Malthusian stagnation (before 1500); discovery and colonization (between 1500 and 1750); independence of the colony and...