The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to...

The econometric literature has been unable to establish a robust association between foreign aid and growth and poverty reduction. In this paper we argue that aid effectiveness must be assessed using methods that go beyond cross-country regressions. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2012, Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly from the devastating floods, with real GDP growing by 6.5 percent. Private consumption rose 6.7 percent, reflecting pent-up demand and government measures, including the rice pledging scheme,...

This Selected Issues paper reviews the extent to which growth in Ethiopia has translated into higher living standards. A key feature of the economic strategy has been an explicit commitment to poverty reduction and structural transformation. This is underpinned by the vision of a...

KEY ISSUES Context: Kenya has embarked on major reforms in line with the 2010 constitution. The new government has started the process of devolution at a fast pace, introducing a reporting framework that allows for monitoring progress and challenges. Macroeconomic stability in a market-friendly...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s external position remains strong. Boosted by investment income, the current account surplus widened in 2006 to nearly 4 percent of Japan’s GDP, despite a shrinking trade balance. Financial outflows also picked up, reflecting...

India’s strong growth and macroeconomic stability is owed to its sound macroeconomic policies and past structural reforms. Swelling capital inflows have highlighted the key policy challenges: managing financial globalization and tackling the supply constraints to growth. Monetary...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the...

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s...