Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a...

Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Korea's long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social protection is creating poverty and dampening consumption. The paper presents projections of Korea's fiscal outlook, using new estimates of potential...

Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Korea's long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social protection is creating poverty and dampening consumption. The paper presents projections of Korea's fiscal outlook, using new estimates of potential...

This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the proposition that there is a significant asymmetry in the U.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply conditions are disinflationary. The important policy implication...

This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measuresusing auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurementof true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error inofficial GDP per capita may depend on the...

This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures using auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurement of true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error in official GDP per capita may depend on...

This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the proposition that there is a significant asymmetry in the U.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply conditions are disinflationary. The important policy implication...