We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the 'dollar carry trade,' which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking...

We study how advancements in automation technology affect the division of aggregate income between capital and labor in the context of long-run growth. Our analysis focuses on the fundamental trade-off between the labor-displacing effect of automation and its positive productivity effect in an...

"The average forward discount of the dollar against developed market currencies is the best predictor of average foreign currency excess returns earned by U.S. investors on a long position in a large basket of foreign currencies and a short position in the dollar. The predicted excess returns...

This paper considers growth and fluctuations in a standard Overlapping Generations (OLG) model with rational expectations, with land (a non-produced asset), credit frictions, and endogenous growth. Under plausible conditions, there can be multiple momentary equilibria, with the multiplicity...

Building on recent advances in the literature on knowledge creation and innovation (notably Carnehl and Schneider (2025), we propose a novel general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates artificial intelligence (AI) as a decision-enhancing technology capable of interpolating between...

How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) funding impact employment and growth? An analysis of data from the US Census Bureau suggests that while both advanced technology use and VC funding matter on their own for firm outcomes, their joint presence is most strongly correlated...

Most U.S. innovation output originates from firms that operate R&D facilities across multiple local markets. We study how this geographic structure influences aggregate innovation and growth, and whether it is socially optimal. First, we develop an endogenous growth model featuring multi-market...

This paper explores the symbiotic relationship between transformative entrepreneurs and inventors, which is crucial for economic growth. We utilize microdata from Denmark to demonstrate that while the relationship between IQ and general entrepreneurship tends to be negative, it is strongly...